Paper 305 of 383
Published June 1, 2026
Discovery is often treated as an event.
From an Earth-system perspective, discovery may be more accurately described as the outcome of accumulated probabilities.
Certain locations exhibit greater constraint density.
Certain regions exhibit greater persistence.
Certain transition zones exhibit greater information concentration.
This paper evaluates whether discovery probability can be estimated through the convergence of independent geological constraints.
Discovery probability increases when independent observations repeatedly reinforce the same location, pathway, or interpretation.
The objective is not certainty.
The objective is improving the odds.